IMO think this is challenging to forecast. There are many hedge funds with sophisticated models that spend millions of dollars trying to predict that
Saying that, there are simple models one could build to track volatility - which would allow the community to determine if its trending volatility or just an anomalous spike e.t.c.
How about raising the rewards AS you raise the cap just to make the APR sustainable and fair to latecomers who might not have gotten a chance to join on day 1?
Can you clarify your question? If I have interpreted your question correctly, then the proposed new caps may not be the optimal level the user base desires, but it should be considered as a stepping stone to get there i.e. a staggered caps raise and continuous approach of assessing risk and parameters associated with risk
The deposit rewards program in play has already been accepted by the community, so changing it right now while its currently underway is probably not optimal